An experimental analysis of the effect of weather beyond turnout

Theoretical and empirical studies show that inclement weather on an election day reduces turnout, potentially swinging the results of the election. Psychology studies, however, show that weather affects individual mood, which – in turn – affects individual decision-making activity potentially beyond the simple decision to turn out on an election day. This paper evaluates the effect of weather, through its effect on mood, on the way in which voters who do turn out decide to cast their votes. The paper provides experimental evidence of the effect of weather on voting when candidates are perceived as being more or less risky. Findings show that, after controlling for policy preferences, partisanship, and other background variables, bad weather depresses individual mood and risk tolerance, i.e.. voters are more likely to vote for the candidate who is perceived to be less risky. This effect is present whether meteorological conditions are measured with objective or subjective measures. This draft: May 20, 2013. Word-count: 8467 ————————————————————————————————————– ∗The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Political Science †An earlier version of this paper has previously circulated as “The indian rain dance of the incumbent. The effect of weather beyond turnout.” I am grateful to Daniel Butler, David Cesarini, Stanley Feldman, Andrew Healy, Luke Keele, Neil Malhotra, Michael MacKuen, and Agnieszka Tymula for helpful comments. I would like to thank the Behavioral Lab at UNC Kenan-Flagler for providing part of the financial support for this paper, and seminar’s participants at the 2012 Midwest Political Science Association, 2013 Southern Political Science Association, and 6th Annual NYU-CESS Experimental Political Science Conference for providing valuable feedback. All errors remain my own.